Assessment of the Impact of Flood Disasters on Socioeconomic Livelihoods in Nyamagabe District, Rwanda (2010–2025)
Eugene Sindikubwabo
*
Department of Environmental Studies, Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Lay Adventists of Kigali (UNILAK), P.O. Box 6392, Kigali, Rwanda.
Janvier Niyomugabo
Department of Environmental Studies, Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Lay Adventists of Kigali (UNILAK), P.O. Box 6392, Kigali, Rwanda.
Jean Damascene Nyabyenda
Department of Environmental Studies, Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Lay Adventists of Kigali (UNILAK), P.O. Box 6392, Kigali, Rwanda.
Jean Baptiste Nsengiyumva
Department of Environmental Studies, Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Lay Adventists of Kigali (UNILAK), P.O. Box 6392, Kigali, Rwanda.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Aims: To assess the impact of flood disasters on the socioeconomic livelihoods of households in Nyamagabe District, Rwanda, between 2010 and 2025, and to analyse the relationship between flood exposure, government/institutional response, and livelihood outcomes.
Study Design: A descriptive-correlational, mixed-methods design combining quantitative household survey data with qualitative key-informant insights.
Place and Duration of Study: Nyamagabe District, Southern Province, Rwanda, covering the period 2010–2025.
Methodology: A census of 325 respondents was used, comprising 204 officially recorded flood-affected households, 12 district-level land office employees, 17 sector land officers, and 92 cell socioeconomic development officers. Data were collected through structured questionnaires (five-point Likert-scale items), key-informant interviews, focus group discussions, document review, and GIS-based spatial analysis (ArcGIS/QGIS) to map flood-prone zones. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and multiple linear regression in SPSS; qualitative data were analysed thematically and triangulated with the quantitative findings.
Results: Flood events increased from 3 in 2010 to 10 in 2025; affected households rose from 110 to 204; and damaged cropland expanded from 620 to 3,200 hectares. Most respondents (64.0%) reported severe negative livelihood impacts, with 81.5% experiencing income loss and 85.5% reporting crop destruction. Regression analysis identified flood frequency (β = 0.304) and flood extent (β = 0.320) as the strongest predictors of livelihood deterioration (R² = 0.405, p < 0.001). Early warning systems significantly improved livelihood outcomes, whereas post-flood recovery support and disaster management plans showed no significant effect.
Conclusion: Recurrent flooding has substantially eroded household livelihoods in Nyamagabe District over the study period. Strengthening early warning systems, flood-control infrastructure, recovery programmes, and livelihood diversification is recommended to enhance community resilience against recurrent flooding.
Keywords: Climate hazards, disaster risk reduction, flood disasters, Rwanda, socioeconomic livelihoods, vulnerability and resilience